Day 1 Of A Trump Presidency Is Obvious; Day 1 Of Harris Was Always Imponderable
What would Kamala Harris have done on Day 1 as president? I, at least, have no idea.
As a result of my little perch here at Above the Law (and The Daily Beast), I’m obligated to pay some attention to politics.
A couple of months ago, I considered writing a post about how the first day of a Kamala Harris presidency would have differed from the first day of a Donald Trump presidency. I never wrote that piece because it would have been all about Trump. On Day 1, Trump would obviously do many things. On Day 1, I have no clue what Harris would have done — other than not being Trump.
Perhaps that explains why Harris lost the election.
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Think about it. What would Kamala Harris have done on Day 1 as president? I, at least, have no idea. Harris surely would have rolled out some policies over time, but I can’t identify anything that was likely to happen on Day 1.
Maybe that says a mouthful about Harris, who tried to hold herself out as the candidate of change.
Now think about Trump’s first day in office. It’s an avalanche of likely changes.
Put aside Trump’s cabinet picks.
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Trump wants to do so many things on Day 1 that I bet he’ll actually roll those announcements out over time. As you’re surely beginning to remember again, Trump wants to be the center of attention every day. He’ll get more attention by rolling out one important initiative every day than by announcing the initiatives all at once.
For example, if Jack Smith has not already dismissed the pending federal criminal cases against Trump — one in D.C. about the actions Trump took on January 6, and one in Florida about mishandling classified documents — Trump will dismiss those cases immediately on January 20. The mere pendency of those cases causes Trump to incur defense costs with every passing minute. Trump hates spending money. The instant Trump gets his attorney general in office, that new attorney general will cause the charges to be dropped and will dismiss Jack Smith as special prosecutor.
On Day 1, Trump will also pardon at least some of the January 6 criminal defendants. If you believe, as Trump apparently does, that folks are unfairly spending time in jail because they were improperly convicted of crimes committed on January 6, 2021, then each extra night spent in a jail cell is an affront to justice. A prompt pardon, springing folks from jail, is the way to remedy this. Pardons can be issued by unilateral presidential action. Trump might well begin to issue pardons on Day 1.
Trump will again withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords. This is tit for tat: Obama entered the Paris agreement; Trump withdrew from it; Biden re-entered it. Now it’s Trump’s serve. He’ll withdraw again, proving that he can undo his predecessors’ actions.
Trump will issue executive orders to start massive deportations of undocumented workers on Day 1. Trump has promised that for months. This can be started by executive action, requiring no other consent. So Trump will do this, and he’ll do it promptly.
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Trump will start reducing the employment protections given to federal civil servants on Day 1. Again, Trump has promised to do this. Getting rid of people who oppose Trump’s policies is important to achieving Trump’s goals. And he can start this process without legislative action. It’s a Day 1 issue.
On his first day in office, Trump will start the process of selling out Ukraine. Trump is isolationist. Trump hates Ukraine because, among other things, Ukraine was involved in triggering his first impeachment. So Trump will quickly stop sending weapons to Ukraine and start talking to Putin about how to end the war.
The war may linger for a little while because Biden is now accelerating arms exports to Ukraine to help Ukraine under a Trump presidency, and Europe will keep equipping the country for a while. But Ukraine is basically toast, and the process of browning and buttering will begin early in the Trump administration.
Trump will abandon our NATO allies on Day 1. Trump has threatened to do this, and John Bolton (Trump’s former national security advisor) says it’s a certainty. The only question is timing. Actually pulling out of NATO might require some legislative action and take time. But kneecapping NATO is easy and unilateral: Trump just has to announce that the United States is no longer willing to help defend countries that don’t contribute enough money to their own defense.
That kind of statement is perfect for Trump — perhaps the countries will, in fact, ante up for their own defense, and Trump will be a hero. Or perhaps the countries won’t, and NATO will be destroyed. (It’s essentially impossible to defend Germany, but not Poland, from a Russian attack, or vice versa. If we’re not providing collective security to NATO, we’re providing no security at all.) Trump’s mere statement will (1) put the spotlight on Trump, which he craves, and (2) tell Putin everything he needs to know about, for example, the vulnerability of the Baltic states. Something that attracts the press, achieves one of Trump’s stated policy goals, and can be accomplished single-handedly by the president is perfect for a Day 1 event.
Trump will also immediately sign executive orders to let companies start drilling for more oil. “Drill, baby, drill” has been a campaign promise, and Trump can start keeping that promise (and attract attention) by announcing an initiative that starts the process. He will.
The list goes on, and on, and on.
My point is not really that these ideas are good or bad. My point isn’t that these things reflect well or poorly on Trump. My point is not that I agree or disagree with this stuff.
Rather, my point is that it’s easy to see how things will change in a Trump administration. The words come tripping off the tongue and popping off the keyboard.
On the other hand, despite having given a fair amount of thought to what Harris would have done on Day 1, I can’t come up with anything.
In an election about choosing the “change candidate,” perhaps that helps to explain her loss.
Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at [email protected].
