Government

A First Look At 2026

Every thinking person voted against Trump (not necessarily for Harris; but against Trump), and it wasn't enough. We've brought this on ourselves.

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Former President Trump Addresses The Turning Points Action Conference In West Palm Beach, California

(Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Somehow, in the first century B.C., the poet Horace captured my thoughts:  “Odi profanum vulgus,” or “I hate the rabble.”

When Adlai Stevenson was running for president in 1952, he echoed Horace.  Told that “every thinking person will be voting for you,” Stevenson replied, “That’s not enough.  I need a majority.”

That’s what happened on Election Day.  Every thinking person voted against Trump (not necessarily for Harris; but against Trump), and it wasn’t enough.

I admit that I’m glad to learn that the United States in fact runs free and fair elections.  For four years, Trump repeated the lie that he had won in 2020 — a lie that both divided America and undermined faith in our system.  But Trump didn’t care.  Lying served his purposes, and America be damned.

Now we know the truth:  American elections are okay, and Trump lies.

Knock me over with a feather.

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Where are we now?

Trump has won.  He’ll appoint loyalists to his administration.  Republican majorities in Congress will go along with what Trump proposes.  Many of the policies for which Trump advocated during his campaign will be implemented.

Thus:  Trump wants to impose 10 or 20 percent across-the-board tariffs.  By themselves, U.S. tariffs will trigger inflation.  And when the targets of those tariffs — other countries — impose reciprocal tariffs, inflation will get worse.

Trump wants to maintain the tax cuts that were enacted during his first administration and further reduce taxes on things such as tips, Social Security benefits, and the like.  Tax cuts are inflationary, so pile that inflation on top of inflation caused by the tariffs.

Tax cuts naturally increase governmental debt.  Economists say that Trump’s policies, if enacted, will increase the national debt by about $7.5 trillion over the next 10 years.

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Trump has also promised to deport all illegal immigrants.  That will cost tens, or hundreds, of billions of dollars.  Currently, about 1.9 million people are incarcerated in the United States.  Trump says that he’ll round up, imprison, and then deport about 20 million more.  That’s a lot of new law enforcement officers and a ton of new prisons.  It won’t be cheap to round the immigrants up, temporarily feed and house them, and then ship them overseas.  That’s another inflationary pressure and addition to the debt.

And, of course, taking millions of people out of the workforce will lead to labor shortages.  Which means wage increases for the remaining workforce.  Which means yet more inflation.

It also means angry farmers and ranchers in Texas, whose businesses have been destroyed by Trump’s decision to deport most of their workforce.

If the public protests the deportations, things could turn ugly.  Trump may, as he has said he will, call out the National Guard or active-duty military to control the protests.

Trump will naturally claim credit for every good thing that happens on his watch, even if some of those things have nothing to do with his policies.  And Trump will naturally blame others for every bad thing that happens on his watch.  (The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has been pretty smart since his first appointment in 2017.  Trump will be calling Powell an idiot in no time.  Mark my words.)

But the rabble, as ill-informed as they are, will be hot in 2026 when economic conditions have gotten noticeably worse during the first two Trump years.

I don’t even want to talk about foreign policy, where the United States will have abandoned Ukraine, fractured NATO, and God knows what else.

I don’t wish bad things on America.  But I’m afraid we’ve brought this on ourselves.

Here’s the silver lining:  There will be a blue wave in 2026.  Democrats will win a majority in the House of Representatives.  Democrats may retake the Senate, when public fury is combined with 20 Republican seats and only 13 Democratic ones up for grabs in the midterms.  

You read it here first.

But I still hate the rabble.

Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at [email protected].

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